What are Crop Progress Reports?
Actually, this is one report name that really does describe what the report is all about–woo hoo! The report comes out weekly and describes where the crop is in the growing season across the U.S. (i.e. the crop’s PROGRESS) and compares each state’s progress to the previous week, previous year, and 5 year average.
Throughout the growing season, the report changes to track what’s important in each stage of growth. For instance, once everything is planted, there’s no longer a need to report the percent planted. Rather, the report shifts to a focus on overall condition of the crop and how it’s doing in the next stages of it’s growth.
For instance, in July ‘silking’ and ‘dough’ for corn and ‘blooming’ and ‘setting pods’ for soybeans are reported, as well as overall condition. By October, the focus shifts to the crop’s percent harvested and its condition.
What’s the market focused on now when they look at the report?
Right now, the focus of the report is on the percentage planted. The percentages are reported by state and compared to the previous week, year and 5 year average.
Considering how wet it’s been in many areas, planting has been off to a slow start. In the Crop Progress report from Monday, May 13th, 2019, all states were below (and many WELL below) their 5 year average percentage planted for this time of year.
The market watches these reports to gauge how how many acres will likely be planted for each commodity, take a stab at estimating yields, predict overall production and carryout, etc. All in all, it’s a way to gather insight into what’s happening across the country to make an educated guess on what the U.S. is likely to produce for the year, which, in the end, impacts market prices.
If planting progress is behind pace for the year, why haven’t we seen a price rally?
Unfortunately, farmers have gotten extremely efficient. 🙂 The market hasn’t gotten too concerned that the crop won’t get planted just yet. However, they’re starting to take more notice. The corn and soybean markets did react favorably after the report on May 13th revealed that planting progress across the country is well behind last year and the 5 year average.
– 30% planted on average for corn, versus a 5 year average of 66% this time of year
– 9% planted versus a 5 year average of 29% for soybeans
(see the report here)
A few good weather days back in the field will likely mean fairly sizable jump in percent planted. As equipment has increased in size, it just doesn’t take as long to cover a lot of acres. However, if weather delays continue and percentage planted stays significantly behind average pace in the big production states, the market may continue to react more favorably as the window for planting shortens.
However, always remember that the market is impacted by a variety of factors all at once. Thus, the impact of a Crop Progress Report revealing below average percent planted numbers may be muddled by other news, such as unfavorable trade headlines.
When are the reports released?
Crop Progress Repots are only released by the USDA throughout the growing season (April-November). You’ll find a new one each week on Monday, or the first business day of the week if a holiday falls on a Monday.
Find the most recent report & past reports here: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/8336h188j?locale=en#release-items